The HYDA Index - Enron Corporate Wiki

Between November 5 and November 26, 2001, Christian Yoder – a trading attorney in Enron’s Portland office – sent daily dispatches to a group of ten colleagues. Each dispatch assigned a numerical score to the day’s events, blending financial analysis with observations of crows outside his office window on the Willamette River. He called it the Hall-Yoder Daily Assessment, or HYDA. He signed each one “—-cgy.” Nine dispatches survive, preserved in a single mailbox. They constitute one of the most extraordinary pieces of writing in the corpus.

The Index Opens: +1

The first dispatch, sent Monday, November 5, 2001, survives only as a reference in the next day’s email. The index opened at +1. Whatever Yoder saw in the crows that day, the text is lost.

The second dispatch is complete.

HYDA index -1

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

To: Dale Rasmussen, Steven McCarrel, Kenton Erwin, Eric Merten, Tracy Ngo, Susan Rance, Tim Belden, Matt Motley, Chris Calger, Elizabeth Sager

Date: November 6, 2001

Monday, November 5, 2001: +1 Tuesday, November 6, 2001 : -1 The pluses and minuses came out flat, however, two crows flying directly at the building, facing an immediate decision as to whether to fly up or down to avoid collision, at the very last moment turned down. ----cgy

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2236708

The distribution list: Tim Belden, who ran Portland’s West Power trading desk. Chris Calger, a senior trader. Elizabeth Sager, the Houston-based trading attorney who oversaw Portland legal. Tracy Ngo from credit. Dale Rasmussen. Seven others. Everyone who mattered in Portland’s operation, receiving crow reports from their lawyer.

The crows turned down.

The Fall: -5

On November 8, 2001, Enron announced it was restating earnings going back to 1997, reducing net income by $586 million. The index hit its lowest point.

HYDA -5

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: November 8, 2001

The Hall-Yoder Daily Assessment Index for Thursday, November 8, 2001: -5 Monday +1 Tuesday -1 Wednesday -2 Thursday -5 The pronounced slow down in trading and the release of the restatement of income figures, amounting as the numbers did, to another heavy "foot falling," are substantive factors that are not mitigated by the fact that the Street stayed its raised boot from punting us across the junk bond line and that the Dynagy merger talks apparently continue, while the Mordant news further darkens the perception of the inner sanctum of the commercial temple. What does it mean that as our inexorable fall continues step by step, the crows, those sable messengers that were flying up and down this very river at this very site when Rome fell, are showing increasingly positive signs? Today, several couples danced with what could only be seen as playfulness on the upcurrents of warm air that abound in and around the buildings, gamboling aviary dyads in the bright sun above the scarlet leaves, their dance upon the wind currents clearly celebratory, even to our reluctant, jaded eyes, sickened with foul corruption. ----cgy

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2237636

“Those sable messengers that were flying up and down this very river at this very site when Rome fell.” The Willamette River. The Portland office. A lawyer watching crows dance while the company that employed him disclosed that it had been lying about its income for four years. The crows were celebrating. The index was at -5. Yoder noticed both.

Dale Rasmussen replied the next day: “I nominate Christian as the poet laureate of Enron.”

The Dog on the Doorstep

Elizabeth Sager read the -5 dispatch from Houston. She responded with her own observation for the index.

↳

RE: HYDA -5

From: Elizabeth Sager <[email protected]>

To: Christian Yoder, Steve Hall

Date: November 9, 2001, 9:16 AM

One for the HYDA index for Nov 8: At 8:15 last night, after a day of what surely was the lowest point in my Enron journey, I went home. Upon arrival, an old black dog was hit by a car that sped away. The dog died at 9:00 on my doorstop. We helped our neighbors bury him. Lets hope the crows know something different for today's report. Oh, Nov 8th was also my husband's birthday. Obviously no party. Elizabeth Sager 713-853-6349

↳

RE: HYDA -5

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

To: Elizabeth Sager, Steve Hall

Date: November 9, 2001, 6:56 PM

How swift death's hand can arrive to touch any and all. By analogy, I guess we are all experiencing the sudden death of an illusion. I would say the death of that poor faithful animal is more significant than the death of a vain illusion. And, the fact that you would be the kind of person who would respond as you obviously did, out of compassion and tenderness, is a more important fact than some fucking number some Street agency is assigning to our misery in some wretched board room atop a commercial temple. ----cgy

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2237924

“Some fucking number some Street agency is assigning to our misery in some wretched board room atop a commercial temple.” From the man who had invented a number to assign to his own misery. The HYDA Index was a joke and not a joke. Yoder’s reply to Sager breaks the literary surface for the only time in the series – the prose falls away and what remains is a person, angry, writing to a colleague whose dog died on the worst day of her professional life, insisting that her compassion matters more than Moody’s credit rating.

Dynegy: -3

The next day, November 9, the Dynegy merger was announced. Tim Belden and Chris Calger flew to Houston.

HYDA -3

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: November 9, 2001

The Hall-Yoder Daily Assemsment Index for Friday, November 9, 2001: -3 Monday +1 Tuesday -1 Wednesday -2 Thursday -5 Friday -3 It has become clear that we cannot save ourselves, and so, a takeover would seem to be better than bankruptcy. Through thick fog it seems that Wall Street banks (lenders to Enron) may favor a Dynegy takeover to the alternative, and the Moody downgrade fell just short of the junk bond line. Tim Belden and Chris Calger flying to Houston means Portland's voice may be heard at one of the many tables in the many board rooms, but is offset by the fact that Tracy Ngo was seen in the photocopy room, rushing to get six months of expense reports submitted to Houston for payout. And, the crows were seen swarming out over the calm waters of the river, circling above the waters as if expecting to see something below, eventually rising up in a flock to lead the way south ahead of Tim and Chris.

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2238052

Two details. Tracy Ngo, the credit analyst, rushing to submit six months of expense reports – the act of a person who believed there would soon be nobody left to reimburse her. And Tim Belden and Chris Calger flying to Houston to argue for Portland’s survival, trailed by crows heading the same direction. Yoder was tracking two indices: the numerical one that measured the company’s vital signs, and the avian one that measured something older.

The High Point: +3

On Monday, November 12, the index reached its peak. Portland had been told to resume business as usual.

HYDA +3

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: November 12, 2001

Hall Yoder Daily Assessment Index for Monday, November 12, 2001: +3 A number of relatively positive factors are offset by the single negative factor that the good old days are forever gone. The free fall seems to have ended. Lots of cash is coming in. Portland office is apparently to be spared a misery that Houston will not be so fortunate as to escape, and is given a clear message to resume work as usual. Street Oracle carping and whining at low level of hysteria. Perhaps a key subliminal message can be divined from the fact that Tim went to Houston carrying full documentation and prepared to hand in all of his expense reports, but came back without having turned anything in at all, flying back home on the jetstream, much like the single crow that sailed by today, heading due north high above the center of the Willamette, as though it knew exactly where it was going.

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2238500

The expense report callback. Tracy Ngo had rushed hers. Tim Belden went to Houston prepared to file his but came back without submitting them – a man who had been reassured he would still have a job to file them with. One crow, heading north, above the Willamette, knowing exactly where it was going.

The Prophecy: -2

By November 19, the brief reprieve was over. The 10-Q filing revealed new problems.

HYDA -2

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: November 19, 2001

The Hall-Yoder Daily Assessment Index for November 19, 2001 is -2. Dark murmurings about the 10Q filing made back east late today drove the index into the negative realm, and the swarming of the largest flock of crows seen since the current crisis began had a kind of prophetic impetus: "there will probably be much activity tomorrow," the dancing, frenetic, catapulting birds seemed to say.

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2241252

The Guillotine: -2

HYDA Index -2

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: November 20, 2001

The Hall-Yoder Daily Assessment Index for Tuesday, November 20 is -2. The bad news contained in the 10Q did not lead to an immediate junk bond downgrade. This implies that Mr. Banker, who lent us the $9b that, (surprise!), we have to pay back so soon, has been able to persuade Mr. Credit Rater to stay his release of the raised guillotine a day longer, permitting us, we hope, to withdraw our neck from the block and continue to negotiate with Mr. Banker for the vintage Enron "blend and extend" package. Amidst much crow activity up and down the river, a single large specie was seen flying due north with a large tuft of something clasped in his beak, followed by a rapacious sea gull in hot pursuit.

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2241924

“Mr. Banker” and “Mr. Credit Rater” and the raised guillotine. By November 20, Yoder had moved from Roman augury to medieval allegory. The financial system had become a cast of characters: the banker who needed the credit agency to hold its downgrade long enough for the deal to close, the company trying to withdraw its neck from the block. And a crow with something in its beak, chased by a gull.

The Last Dispatch

HYDA Index -2

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: November 26, 2001

The Hall-Yoder Daily Assessment Index for Monday, November 26, 2001 is: -2. The daily press commentary provided one with an opportunity to be either pessimistic or optimistic as one's predisposition dictated. Does the fact that it was a day when no fresh and negative revelations were published mean it was a good day or a bad day? Take your pick. Not a single crow was sighted on this cold day. Nothing to base augury upon. There must have been days like this in ancient Rome when the Senators gazed out across a bleak landscape and saw no birds.

SELECT sender_name, body FROM read_pst_messages('zl_sager-e_000.pst') WHERE node_id = 2243748

November 26, 2001. The day before Thanksgiving. No crows. Nothing to read in the sky. “There must have been days like this in ancient Rome when the Senators gazed out across a bleak landscape and saw no birds.”

Two days later, on November 28, Dynegy terminated the merger. S&P downgraded Enron to junk. On December 2, the company filed for bankruptcy.

There were no more dispatches.

Coda

Three weeks after the last HYDA dispatch, on December 19, Yoder sent one more email to the group. He and Steve Hall were hosting a pizza lunch.

Lunch on Thursday

From: Christian Yoder <[email protected]>

Date: December 19, 2001

LEGAL NOTICE: Christian Yoder and Steve Hall (hereinafter "we" or "our" or "us") intend to pay for the food (which will probably, but not necessarily, be pizza and salad) with post-petition Chapter 11 salary dollars that have already cleared our respective individual bank accounts and, therefore, by joining us in the meal ("Lunch") you will not be exposed to any retroactive claw-back risk by way of the Cash Account Committee.

The lawyers, buying pizza with post-petition dollars, drafting a legal disclaimer for the invitation. The HYDA Index was over. The crows had moved on. But the Portland office was still there, still eating lunch, still writing in a voice that refused to be ordinary even when describing pizza.

Note on Preservation

Every HYDA dispatch exists in only one mailbox in the entire corpus: that of Elizabeth Sager, the Houston-based attorney who oversaw Portland legal. Tim Belden, Chris Calger, Tracy Ngo, Dale Rasmussen – all ten recipients are represented in the EDRM dataset, but none of their mailboxes contain the dispatches. Sager kept them. Whether she filed them deliberately or simply never deleted them, her inbox is the reason any of this survives.

The Index Opens: +1

The Fall: -5

The Dog on the Doorstep

Dynegy: -3

The High Point: +3

The Prophecy: -2

The Guillotine: -2

The Last Dispatch

Coda

Note on Preservation

See Also

See Also

Lay It on the Line

The Good Ones

The True Believers